The conclusion of school holidays this week means we are now entering the final phase of the property cycle for 2026, a year that will go down in history as one to remember (or forget).
Last week I made the observation that the real estate industry has entered crisis mode largely due to the sharp drop in transactions. Well here is a stat for you, last week Domain reported 162 sales across Sydney where the same Saturday last year recorded 426. A pretty staggering change which has left agents, stylists, conveyancers and mortgage brokers all now reviewing their rate cards.
What a difference a year makes, in October 2025 interest rates were coming down and FOMO was alive and well, this acronym was soon to be replaced with another…FOOP…fear of over-paying.
In a way the drop in sales is a good thing. It can mean that a floor is starting to form. To be clear, we aren’t out of the woods yet, in fact I would say right now we are well and truly in the woods (I’m a true woodsman at present) but this fall in supply can create a circuit breaker…the market slows, buyers inevitably get frustrated and then buyer numbers and support can build.
I saw this phenomenon during the GFC. It’s one thing to walk around a marketplace as a buyer gleefully pointing out that the market has changed but it’s another to find something that you actually want to buy.
That’s right folks, sellers have been leaving the chat…and they always do when the market softens. Methinks we are entering the grind phase which may last for quite a while.
Thankfully we are fortunate to have some great new stock on offer but from talking to other agents and stylists it looks like this is going to be a lean Spring and many buyers may have to wait until 2027 and beyond…79 sleeps until Christmas.
Until next week,
David Murphy